Lines in the sand: the use and misuse of red lines

This article explores series of “red lines” issued over the years by the USA and Israel toward Iran and Syria. It argues that the effectiveness of inflexible “red lines” in an environment that is given to rapid change is doubtful. They provide an adversary with the ability to determine when the deterring party will act and when they will not, a situation that is often undesirable. Moreover, their inflexible nature on the one hand opens the doors for circumvention while technically staying within their parameters. On the other hand, a strategy of more ambiguous “red lines” that allow flexibility in choosing the time, intensity, and nature of the response could also achieve a considerable deterrent effect, provided that they do not remain mere bluffs.     

简述与《禁止化学武器公约》相关的生化融合技术

《禁止化学武器公约》是一项十分重要的国际公约。《公约》全面、切实地履行,对在全球范围禁止化学武器使用,防止化学武器扩散,减少化学武器对人类的危害具有重大而深远意义。然而,随着科技的发展,《公约》面临着新的挑战。特别是生物学和化学的发展与融合,对《公约》实施可能产生的影响日益明显。文章结合禁止化学武器组织科学咨询委员会向第三次《禁止化学武器公约》审议大会提交的报告,重点就与《公约》有关的化学与生物融合的技术问题进行了简要的归纳和分析。     

Terminal allocation problem in a transshipment hub considering bunker consumption

This article investigates the method of allocating arriving vessels to the terminals in transshipment hubs. The terminal allocation decision faced by a shipping alliance has the influence on the scheduled arrival time of vessels and further affects the bunker consumption cost for the vessels. A model is formulated to minimize the bunker consumption cost as well as the transportation cost of inter‐terminal transshipment flows/movements. The capacity limitation of the port resources such as quay cranes (QCs) and berths is taken into account. Besides the terminal allocation, the QC assignment decision is also incorporated in the proposed model. A local branching based method and a particle swarm optimization based method are developed to solve the model in large‐scale problem instances. Numerical experiments are also conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, which can save around 14% of the cost when compared with the “First Come First Served” decision rule. Moreover, the proposed solution methods not only solve the proposed model within a reasonable computation time, but also obtain near‐optimal results with about 0.1～0.7% relative gap. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 529–548, 2016     

基于灰色Verhulst优化模型的电子装备故障预测方法

针对平均故障工作时间数据样本量少的特点,提出利用灰色Verhulst模型预测电子装备故障;又针对灰色Verhulst模型存在预测精度不高的问题,研究了灰色Verhulst模型参数的优化方法。通过实际试验数据对2个模型进行了仿真验证,并基于灰色关联度对2个模型的模拟预测精度进行了比较分析,结果表明：基于灰色Verhulst优化模型适合于电子装备故障预测,并具有较高的拟合预测精度。     

装备采购委托代理关系分析

针对目前采用的委托方对代理方的激励与约束机制设计,利用博弈论方法分析了监督策略成本会引起最优解迁移,并以实例予以了说明.同时,给出了军事经济效能观测指标的选择原则和多行动代理方的激励机制设计原则.     

从《孙子兵法》管理思想看密切官兵关系的重要性

《孙子兵法》作为兵学圣典,对当前部队的日常管理具有重要的指导作用。从《孙子兵法》对自古以来官兵紧张关系的具体描述,剖析当前官兵关系紧张的成因,探讨科学解决官兵紧张关系的方法。     

蒙汉语序对比在汉语教学中的作用

蒙古族学生汉语基础和表达能力均比较薄弱,具体表现为汉语口语和书面语中＂病句＂较多,这一直是困扰汉语教学的问题。汉语和蒙语隶属于不同的语系,语言习惯及语法之间存在着很大的差异。如果在汉语教学中采取蒙汉语序对比的教学方式,可有效解决这一问题。     

青年官兵人际交往新变化对官兵关系的影响及对策

部队青年官兵的社会联系和活动空间日益扩大,人际交往趋于复杂,发生诸多新变化,呈现出多层次、多方位、多色彩等特点。青年官兵交往面越来越广泛,但交往的深度,尤其是感情深度却不断在弱化。同甘共苦的战斗情谊淡化,官兵之间情感的向心力减弱;尊干爱兵的同志情谊硬化,官兵之间情感的距离拉大;传统的官兵情战友爱庸俗化,官兵之间情感的基础脆弱。因此,我们要找准密切官兵关系的情感“融合点”;进行社会主义新型人际关系的教育;为官兵正常交往创造良好的条件;加强对官兵不正常交往的约束;提高干部的利益整合能力。     

基于直线特征的图像－模型匹配算法

提出了一种新的基于直线特征的图像与模型匹配方法。该方法选择那些可以描述目标边界的直线建立模型。识别时 ,分层次地综合使用直线的多种特性 ,从而提高了效率 ,减少了误匹配的可能性。文中给出了用仿真图像和真实图像所做的实验结果。该算法可以用于目标识别、变化检测和视觉导航等多个领域     

轰炸机——空防导弹武器系统对抗的兰彻斯特方程

应用兰彻斯特作战动态方程的研究方法建立了轰炸机———地空导弹的对抗模型,与统计实验法相比可以节约大量的仿真时间。